Meteorological Factors Associated with the Incidence of Hand, Foot, And Mouth Disease; Melioidosis; Leptospirosis; and Mushroom Poisoning in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand

Abstract

Meteorological factors have an impact on the incidence and spread of diseases in Thailand, including Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD), Leptospirosis, Melioidosis, and mushroom poisoning. This correlational study aimed to quantify the relationship between meteorological factors and the number of infectious disease cases in Chiang Mai province. Meteorological data were obtained from the Northern Meteorological Center, while reported cases of HFMD, Melioidosis, Leptospirosis, and mushroom poisoning were sourced from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control. There were 90 months covering the period from January 2017 to June 2024. The statistical analysis was the descriptive statistics, the Shapiro-Wilk test, Pearson’s correlation, and the generalized linear model, analyzed by the jamovi statistical analysis software with the GAMLj - General Analyses Linear Models. The results showed that the best-fit models were the Quasi-Poisson model for HFMD (R² = 0.198, sunshine hours: IRR = 0.786, p<0.05), leptospirosis (R² = 0.198, relative humidity: IRR = 1.060, p<0.05), and the negative binomial model for mushroom poisoning (R² = 0.438, relative humidity: IRR = 1.073, p<0.05; atmospheric pressure: IRR = 0.780, p<0.05).Meteorological factors were associated with HFMD, leptospirosis, and mushroom poisoning in Chiang Mai, but no model was identified for melioidosis. The primary limitation is the use of monthly data, which may not capture time-lagged or daily dynamics.